Market Outlook — Week of April 10, 2026
Post-CPI Market State
Hot CPI removed market expectations of an early Fed cut. Fed funds futures now pricing first cut at September 2026 (vs July previously). Dollar strength theme reinforced. Risk assets sold off then recovered as initial shock faded. Markets digesting whether 3.5% inflation is one-month anomaly or trend reversal. Most likely: trend, given recent commodity price gains and wage data.
Key Events This Week
| Date | Time UTC | Event |
|---|---|---|
| Wednesday April 12 | 13:30 | US PPI inflation (companion to CPI) |
| Thursday April 13 | 13:30 | US retail sales |
| Thursday April 13 | 13:30 | US initial jobless claims |
| Friday April 14 | 13:30 | US Michigan Consumer Sentiment + inflation expectations |
EUR/USD After CPI Setup
EUR/USD found support at 1.0860 post-CPI. Range now likely 1.0850-1.0930 for the week unless PPI surprises significantly. Bias: USD-positive given recent data trend. Strategy: PUT trades on rallies to 1.0930; CALL only on breaks above 1.0935 with PPI catalyst confirmation.
Crypto Correlation Breakdown
BTC dropped only 4% on hot CPI then recovered fully within 24 hours. This is unusual — historically BTC trades 1.5-2× the magnitude of risk-off moves. Possible reasons: ETF inflows providing structural support; corporate treasury demand; reduced correlation as crypto matures. Implication: traditional 'risk-off = crypto down' framework may need updating. Watch this week whether BTC continues to decouple from broader risk-off impulses.
Gold Pullback Analysis
Gold's pullback from $2,360 to $2,330 was modest given hot CPI's implications. Gold's resilience suggests safe-haven flows balancing real-rate pressure. Key support: $2,330 must hold for bullish thesis intact; break below $2,310 opens correction to $2,280. Strategy: CALL bias on holds of $2,330; switch to PUT below $2,325.
Strategy Ideas
- Strategy 1 — EUR/USD range PUT: enter PUT on rallies to 1.0920, 1h expiry, target 1.0880
- Strategy 2 — PPI Wednesday: post-release continuation in PPI direction
- Strategy 3 — Gold $2,330 support test: CALL on bounces from $2,330; PUT on close below $2,325
- Strategy 4 — BTC: watch for continued decoupling — if BTC holds despite USD strength, trend follows up; if breaks 60k, ETF flows likely turn outflow
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