Market Outlook — Week of March 13, 2026
FOMC week with rate decision Wednesday March 15. Last week's US CPI came in slightly hotter than expected (3.1% vs 3.0%); shifted Fed expectations toward later cuts. This week's pre-FOMC positioning will dominate…
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Pre-FOMC Setup
Pre-FOMC weeks typically show: reduced position sizing by institutions awaiting clarity; range-bound trading on major pairs; gold strength on policy uncertainty; risk asset hesitation. Markets are pricing Fed to hold (no rate change) — surprise hold is unlikely. The dot plot revision is the actual market-moving event. Currently the median 2026 dot is 4 cuts (100 bps); any upward revision (fewer cuts) is hawkish; downward (more cuts) is dovish.
Key Events
| Date | Time UTC | Event |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday March 14 | 12:30 | US PPI inflation |
| Tuesday March 14 | 12:30 | US retail sales |
| Wednesday March 15 | 18:00 | FOMC rate decision + dot plot |
| Wednesday March 15 | 18:30 | Powell press conference |
| Thursday March 16 | 12:30 | US initial jobless claims |
| Friday March 17 | 13:30 | US Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Asset Setups
- EUR/USD — range 1.0850-1.0920 pre-FOMC; breakout direction depends on dot plot
- Gold — pushing all-time highs around $2,380 on policy uncertainty
- BTC — consolidation 58k-62k; institutional positioning ahead of FOMC affects flows
- USD/JPY — JPY weakness continuing; key resistance 152.00
Pre-FOMC Strategy
- Recommend — close all positions by 17:00 UTC Wednesday (1 hour before FOMC)
- Don't trade — Wednesday 18:00-19:30 UTC (rate decision + Powell)
- Wait for direction — Wednesday 20:00+ UTC for post-FOMC continuation setups
- Thursday-Friday — trade the established post-FOMC trend with 30-60 min expiries
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