Binary Options Payout Calculator
How to Use This Calculator
Enter three numbers: (1) Your payout percentage (typically 0.75 to 0.95 on Quotex); (2) Your win rate (the percentage of trades that win, based on at least 50 demo or live trades); (3) Your stake per trade in dollars. The calculator displays: expected value per trade in dollars, break-even win rate at your current payout, projected monthly result assuming consistent execution, and the recommended adjustments if expected value is negative.
- Step 1 — Determine your payout from the Quotex platform (shown next to each asset before you trade)
- Step 2 — Calculate your win rate from your last 50-100 trades on demo or live (number of wins / total trades × 100)
- Step 3 — Enter your typical stake size in USD
- Step 4 — Read the expected value per trade — if negative, you're losing money even if it doesn't feel like it
- Step 5 — Read the break-even win rate — your win rate must exceed this number to break even (not to profit)
Pre-Calculated Reference Table
Below is a quick reference table showing expected value per $100 stake at common payout/win-rate combinations. Use this if you don't want to do the math yourself.
| Payout % | 50% win rate | 55% win rate | 60% win rate | 65% win rate | 70% win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | -$12.50 | -$3.75 | +$5.00 | +$13.75 | +$22.50 |
| 80% | -$10.00 | -$1.00 | +$8.00 | +$17.00 | +$26.00 |
| 85% | -$7.50 | +$1.75 | +$11.00 | +$20.25 | +$29.50 |
| 90% | -$5.00 | +$4.50 | +$14.00 | +$23.50 | +$33.00 |
| 95% | -$2.50 | +$7.25 | +$17.00 | +$26.75 | +$36.50 |
The Expected Value Formula
Expected value per trade = (Win Rate × Payout) − (Loss Rate × Stake). At payout 0.85 and win rate 0.60: EV = (0.60 × 0.85) − (0.40 × 1.00) = 0.51 − 0.40 = 0.11. This means $11 expected per $100 trade, over many trades. Note that 'over many trades' is critical — single trades have high variance. Even a positive-EV strategy can produce 10 losses in a row. The expected value materializes only across 200+ trades.
Break-Even Win Rate Calculation
Break-even win rate at given payout: W = 1 / (1 + Payout). At payout 0.85: W = 1 / 1.85 = 0.541 or 54.1%. This means you need to win MORE than 54.1% of trades to break even at 85% payout — not 50%, not anything close to a coin flip. Many beginners assume 50% would break even (as it would in a fair-coin bet). The actual asymmetry of binary payouts requires a meaningful skill edge.
Monthly ROI Projection
If you trade N times per month with positive expected value, your monthly ROI = N × EV / starting balance. Example: 200 trades per month, $20 average stake, EV +$2.20 per trade = $440 monthly profit. On a $1,000 starting balance, that's 44% monthly. BUT: this is theoretical and assumes perfect execution + consistent win rate + no drawdowns. Real-world monthly returns are typically 25-50% of theoretical due to variance, emotional execution errors, and market regime changes. So a theoretical 44% might realize 15-25% — still a great month, but realistic numbers.
Common Calculator Misuses
- Misuse 1 — Plugging in unrealistic win rates (75%, 80%) without 100+ trade evidence — gives misleading positive results
- Misuse 2 — Using last 10 trades' win rate — sample too small to be meaningful (50% over 10 trades could be 35% true skill)
- Misuse 3 — Calculating expected value but ignoring variance — even positive EV strategies have losing weeks
- Misuse 4 — Treating the result as a guarantee — expected value is average over many trades, not single-trade prediction
Payout Calculator FAQ
What if my payout varies during the day?
Payouts on Quotex fluctuate based on volatility and time of day. Use your asset's average payout during the hours you typically trade. EUR/USD during London-NY overlap typically pays 90% — use that as your input. If you trade across multiple sessions, calculate separately for each session and weight by trade frequency.
How do I get an accurate win rate?
Track every trade in a spreadsheet or journal. After at least 100 trades using a single strategy on a single timeframe/asset, divide wins by total trades. With less than 50 trades the number is statistically noisy — could be 10-15 percentage points off your true skill level.
What's a 'good' expected value?
Anything positive is profitable in theory. In practice, aim for at least +$8 per $100 stake (8% EV per trade) to overcome variance and emotional execution errors. Below +$5 per $100, the math says you profit, but variance often eats the small edge over realistic trading sessions.
Can I have negative win rate but positive EV?
Not on standard binary options. The payout is less than 100%, so you need win rate > 50% just to begin overcoming the asymmetric loss. The only way to have negative win rate and positive EV would be if your average winning trade paid significantly more than your average losing trade lost — which doesn't apply to binary options (fixed payouts per asset).
Does this calculator account for taxes or fees?
No. The expected value calculation is pre-tax, pre-fees. Most countries tax binary options profits (see country-specific guides). Quotex doesn't charge per-trade fees but withdrawal fees vary by method. Subtract your country's tax rate from the calculated EV for after-tax expected value.
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