Market Outlook — Week of March 20, 2026
Last week's FOMC was the major event. Fed held rates as expected but the dot plot signaled fewer cuts in 2026 (3 cuts down from 4 previously). Initial reaction was USD strength. This week digests the Fed message with…
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FOMC Recap
Fed kept rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected. Key dot plot change: median 2026 rate forecast revised up 25 bps (suggesting fewer cuts than previously). Powell's press conference balanced hawkish dot-plot with dovish acknowledgement of inflation moderation. Net effect: USD strengthening, equities mixed, gold rallying. Markets pricing first cut for July 2026 (vs June previously).
This Week's Calendar
| Date | Time UTC | Event |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday March 21 | 08:30 | Germany manufacturing PMI flash |
| Wednesday March 22 | 12:30 | US existing home sales |
| Thursday March 23 | 12:30 | US initial jobless claims |
| Friday March 24 | 08:30 | UK retail sales |
| Friday March 24 | 12:30 | US PMI flash |
Post-FOMC Setups
- EUR/USD — under pressure from hawkish-dot-plot USD strength. 1.0820 support tested; 1.0780 next support if broken
- Gold (XAU/USD) — rallying on real-rate stability and ongoing safe-haven flows. Key resistance: $2,370 (recent high)
- BTC — initial post-FOMC drop reversed; resumed range-trading around $60k pivot
- GBP/USD — relative GBP strength as BoE more cautious; testing 1.2700 resistance
Strategy Ideas
- Strategy 1 — EUR/USD PUT continuation on rallies to 1.0860; 1h expiry, target 1.0820
- Strategy 2 — Gold CALL continuation on dips to $2,350; 1-2h expiry
- Strategy 3 — GBP/USD CALL on holds above 1.2680; UK retail sales Friday could spike higher
- Strategy 4 — Light positioning Friday afternoon — PMI dual release creates short-term volatility
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